Estimation a Real Problem
The Joburg Centre for Software Engineering (JCSE) and QuantiMetrics will be holding a Master Class on the 27th of August on the challenges of estimation in the software development lifecycle.
5 August 2008
The Joburg Centre for Software Engineering (JCSE) and QuantiMetrics will be holding a Master Class in August on the challenges of estimation in the software development lifecycle.
Professor Barry Dwolatzky, Director of the JCSE, says the difficulties around estimation are some of the most widely talked about in the industry and it therefore made sense to tackle it in one of the Master Classes held by the JCSE on a regular basis.
According to the Chaos Report issued by the Standish Group in 2006, two out of ten software development projects globally never see the light of day. A further four projects out of every ten are likely to come in late and/or over budget, while the remaining four projects will come in on time, to budget and meet the required specifications.
Dwolatzky says while software provides obvious benefits for any business, failure to meet cost and delivery deadlines could have dire consequences.
"The cost of over-run projects could place huge strain on the business, while the delayed introduction of the software or a poor ROI could undermine the business' ability to remain competitive or even deliver its products and services," he says.
In-house vs. Outsourcing:
Bram Meyerson, CEO of QuantiMetrics, says the first decision on a new software development project is often whether to do it in-house or outsource it and both come with their challenges.
If the software is developed internally, then there are issues like whether there are enough resources and whether they able to dedicate time to the project while managing their other responsibilities, Meyerson says.
And if the project is outsourced, then there are the challenges around finding the right development company and managing an external project.
"Generally in-house software development projects are less likely to come in on time and to budget. Reasons for this include a lack of skills, poor planning, unreasonable demands made for rapid delivery of a project and the fact that in-house teams often don't know how to say no to these unreasonable deadline demands.
"Outsourced projects often perform better because the projects are often specified better and the supplier is used to trying to meet the demands that are placed on them by their clients," he says.
Dwolatzky says whether developed internally or externally, most software development projects are therefore hindered by the ability to provide estimations that they can then deliver on.
"The problem is one of process - in both the estimation process and the delivery. Un-realistic targets are often set and projects often prove to be more complicated than initially thought," he says. "Poor process is the main reason why only forty percent of projects globally come in on time and to budget," he says.
Managing requirements:
Meyerson says the most problematic process is that of requirements management and specification. Adequate requirements are often not specified upfront, nor are they managed through the project.
One of the key methodologies to define the requirements that determine how long the project will take and how much it will cost is Function Point Analysis (FPA), which was originally developed by IBM.
"FPA enables companies to objectively quantify the scope of existing systems and the requirements for new and enhanced systems," he says.
It is recognised globally as an effective means of sizing applications and projects from a business perspective, in a manner independent of development technology, providing accurate scheduling and cost estimation, he adds.
"It allows companies to size a project during analysis, track the project during production (i.e. estimates versus actual), assess project delivery upon completion and support benchmarking initiatives which require a measure of delivered size."
Dwolatzky says the Master Class will be held on the 27th of August at the Montecasino Conference Centre in Fourways.
"Maturing processes is one of the key goals at the JCSE for the industry because development companies with more mature processes lower the risk of failing to come in on time, to budget and specification," he says.
For more information on the planned Master Class, click here.